Utopian Forecasting
Utopian Forecasting is a proposed composite bias in which the future is imagined as unrealistically positive, causing obstacles, trade-offs, and risks to be discounted.
| Utopian Forecasting | |
|---|---|
| Field | Cognitive psychology; forecasting; decision-making |
| Author | Andrew Lehti |
| Status | Proposed composite bias |
| Related framework | Cognitive Impasse |
| Related concepts | Optimism Bias, Planning Fallacy, Invulnerability Bias |
Utopian Forecasting describes future prediction distorted toward ideal outcomes. The person expects success, harmony, ease, or inevitable improvement while ignoring constraints.
Within Cognitive Impasse, Utopian Forecasting can prevent preparation. Real risks later feel like betrayal because the imagined future left no room for them.
The bias differs from hope. Hope can coexist with planning. Utopian Forecasting replaces preparation with assumed success.
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