Dystopian Forecasting
Dystopian Forecasting is a proposed composite bias in which the future is predicted as significantly worse than evidence supports, producing anxiety, helplessness, or paralysis.
| Dystopian Forecasting | |
|---|---|
| Field | Cognitive psychology; forecasting; anxiety |
| Author | Andrew Lehti |
| Status | Proposed composite bias |
| Related framework | Cognitive Impasse |
| Related concepts | Negativity Bias, Bleak Retrospection, Learned Helplessness, Utopian Forecasting |
Dystopian Forecasting describes a pessimistic future model in which failure, loss, collapse, or decline is treated as more likely than the evidence supports.
Within Cognitive Impasse, Dystopian Forecasting can protect the person from risk by making action feel pointless. The negative future becomes a reason not to test alternatives.
The bias differs from caution. Caution prepares for risk. Dystopian Forecasting converts risk into fatalism.
See also
References
| Cognitive Biases | |
|---|---|
| Biases | Confirmation Bias · Status Quo Bias · Authority Bias · Negativity Bias · Optimism Bias · Self-Serving Bias · Overconfidence Bias · Publication Bias · Source Attribution Bias |
| Effects | Dunning-Kruger Effect · Backfire Effect · Bandwagon Effect · Social Proof · Pluralistic Ignorance · Learned Helplessness · Normalization of Deviance |
| Composite biases | Academic Distorting Bias · Always Has Been Bias · Ancestral Default · Anticipatory Compliance · Autonormia · Bleak Retrospection · Brevity Bias · Cognitive Dissonance Avoidance · Dismissal Bias · Dystopian Forecasting · Enforced Sameness · Galileo Dismissal · Galileo Gambit · Habitual Inertia · Imposing Inferiority · Infamication · Invulnerability Bias · Microblindness · Normative Reflex · Programmed Emotion Bias · Projected Inferiority · Projected Introspection · Projection and Imposition of Inferiority Bias · Proper Channels Bias · Sympathy Bias · Utopian Forecasting |
| Framework terms | Cognitive Impasse · Cognitive Bias Reinforcement · Cognitive Inertia · Imposition and Projection · Manifested Responses · Selective-Mindedness · Semmelweis Reflex · Standardized Obedience |