Dystopian Forecasting
Dystopian Forecasting is a proposed composite bias in which the future is predicted as significantly worse than evidence supports, producing anxiety, helplessness, or paralysis.
| Dystopian Forecasting | |
|---|---|
| Field | Cognitive psychology; forecasting; anxiety |
| Author | Andrew Lehti |
| Status | Proposed composite bias |
| Related framework | Cognitive Impasse |
| Related concepts | Negativity Bias, Bleak Retrospection, Learned Helplessness, Utopian Forecasting |
Dystopian Forecasting describes a pessimistic future model in which failure, loss, collapse, or decline is treated as more likely than the evidence supports.
Within Cognitive Impasse, Dystopian Forecasting can protect the person from risk by making action feel pointless. The negative future becomes a reason not to test alternatives.
The bias differs from caution. Caution prepares for risk. Dystopian Forecasting converts risk into fatalism.
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